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At the beginning of 2006, the so named real estate “bubble” across the nation was leaking air. We read opposing views by economists, whose opinions graced the pages of national media and were dependent upon which economic theory they followed. It was difficult to know whom to believe. It is now 2007, and we know in most areas the real estate market is considered to be in a recession.

A national economic recession occurs when the gross national product declines by five-to-ten percent over a six-month period. Residential real estate prices have dropped double digit percent points since the beginning of 2006 and inventories of used homes listed for sale doubled between 2004 and 2005, then again between 2005 and 2006.

The News Isn’t All Bad

Real estate is only a part of the gross national product, and the Federal Reserve helped curb inflation by raising the interest rate in 2006. Overall National business activity has increased in the past year, and unemployment is fairing well, remaining at 4.5 percent. New jobs totaling 167,000 were added in December 2006. The gross national product has not declined and the national economy is in very good shape.

So, what does this mean to the sellers and buyers of residential real estate? It means business is back to normal, before the real estate “bubble” inflated so to speak — with some roadblocks to navigate.

Less Available Money

First, all the money that was being invested into real estate during the boom has been diverted into other non-real estate investment opportunities. This means that money once invested in mortgage-backed securities is diminishing.

Additionally, large mortgage lenders are receiving more federal oversight scrutiny for lending practices used during the latest real estate boom. They continually raised the lending limits to control the market (or so a few of these lenders are accused), making mortgage access much too easy. Many of those, who took loans at only 20 percent-to-nothing down (called leveraging), now are losing their homes and defaulting on their mortgages. Even if these owners could sell their homes, afterwards, they would still owe much on the balance of the mortgage. They are being hit the hardest with default rates doubling in both 2005 and 2006, and expected to continue throughout 2007. This, too, has hit the mortgage lending industry where it hurts the most — profits.

Buyers will have a more difficult time securing a mortgage than during the real estate boom, when just about anyone with any type of credit rating was approved. Less mortgage availability means less potential buyers for the home sellers, too.

Before looking for new residential real estate, secure your financing first. Not only are you then confident in looking at property, but also you know exactly what you can afford.

For sellers, ensure your realtor asks potential buyers if they have secured financing. Those that have, even if their offer is a bit lower, may be more attractive buyers than those who have not. You decide which offer to accept. This is especially important, if you are in a hurry to close.

Prices at Practical Levels

During the real estate boom, home values rose by almost 500 percent between 1990 and 2005. Now, they are back to practical levels.

For sellers, who purchased their homes by leveraging, they may have to take a loss or wait out the current market for better times. All sellers face a lot of competition from other homeowners wishing to sell. Some creative staging of their property (inside and out), as well as adding incentives to buyers, can make their residential real estate for sale stand out among the rest. Some Realtors have found success placing the asking price right on the “for sale” sign. Others have taken advertising and marketing into the 21st century by creating specific web sites with a gallery of interior and exterior photos of the home1 . Many Realtors believe in promoting the home for sale through the media by giving the asking price (especially when it is a great deal) — buyers are more apt to be interested, when they know they can afford it. Sellers were in the lead negotiating seat during the real estate boom. They must accept that, though they still have negotiation power, they have relinquished the lead seat to the buyers. This makes a realtor invaluable to both sellers and buyers, alike.

For the buyers, you will get much better real estate deals now. You can take more time to decide and make an offer than during the boom. Secure your financing first, hire a realtor and enjoy the hunt.

1 Ensure no valuables are in the photos. You wish to attract potential buyers — not thieves.

Below is general discussion of various factors impacting property taxes in San Diego, California. The reader should consult their tax advisor for definitive guidance about property tax issues and not rely soley on the informaton below.
Property tax rates are capped in California due to the passage of Proposition 13 in 1978 (“Prop 13″). Prop 13 was a ballot measure approved by the voters of California to limit property tax increases. The legislation also mandated that any future increases in property tax rates have the support of two-thirds of the Legislature for approval. This provision dramatically limited the ability of the legislature to increase taxes.
The property tax rate in California is 1% of the assessed value of real estate, plus any bonds, fees and special charges. Properties can only be reassessed when there is a change in ownership or when new construction is completed. Unless one of these reassessment conditions exists, Prop 13 allows for annual increases of up to 2% of a property’s value.
The passage of Prop 13 dramatically limited the legislatures ability to increase taxes. Despite this, municipalities desired a mechanism to subsidize the building of infrastructure for new developments, so in 1982, the Capital Facilities Act was passed. The act is better known by its legislative authors, Senator Henry Mello and Assemblyman Mike Roos (i.e. Mell-Roos Assessment).
According to the San Diego County Assessor, “Mello-Roos districts are established by local governments at the request of a developer to finance specific public facilities and services such as schools, roads and libraries. Mello-Roos districts were authorized by state law in 1982. This law allows any public agency to establish a Mello-Roos district, which then can issue the necessary tax-exempt bonds and impose fees to pay off these bonds.” Communities or districts that impose a Mello-Roos fee are distributed throughout the County but are most common is large new subdivisions.
In addition to the 1% tax rate allowed by Prop 13, Mello-Roos fees are a separate charge on the property tax bill. The duration of Mello-Roos fees are linked to the amount of time needed to pay off the bond, which is typically 20-25 years. Mello-Roos fees range from $174 to over $3000 annually, and the average fee for San Diego communities was $1,488 in 2006.
To get a general idea about the amount of property taxes you would owe annually on a property, multiply the purchase price of the property by 1.2%. For example, if you purchased a $400,000 home, your annual tax due would be around $4,800, plus special assessments (if applicable), and Mello-Roos fees (if applicable).
Consumers should be aware that tax rates for a particular area can increase as news bonds are added or decrease if bonds are paid off. In addition, Special Asssessments (if any) for new infrastructure can also impact tax rates.
When considering the purchase of real estate, single-family homes, condominiums or townhomes in San Diego (particularly in newer communities), propspective buyers should find out if the property has Mello-Ross or other Special Assessment fees, how long these fees will continue, and if the fees increase annually.
Over 1 million tax bills are sent out every year in San Diego County by the County Tax Collector. The tax period in San Diego covers the period from July 1st to June 30th. The amount owed is based on the assessed value of the property as of January 1st. The tax bill is mailed out in September or early October, and is due in two equal installments; first payment is due December 10th and the second payment is due April 10th. State law does not allow for extensions to pay the tax bill and late payments are subject to a penalty of 18% APR. For those wishing to pay by credit card, the Discover Card is the only option at this time.
For more information about property tax issues in San Diego or to obtain a definative answer to your property tax questions, contact the San Diego County Assessor or your tax professional.

Owing a home is a big part of the American dream. But not everyone is fortunate enough to become a homeowner due to delimiting factors such as insufficient income, bankruptcy, bad or no credit, loss of employment, etc. For people with such troubles, owning a home is a distant dream and some of these people resign themselves to a lifetime of renting. But such people are not without options. Rent-to-own, which is also known as a lease-purchase option, can be an excellent alternative available to some people who are currently unable to buy a home.
A rent-to-own or lease-purchase option is an agreement between a prospective home buyer and a home seller. The agreement is basically a rental contract with a right to purchase the property after a period of time (usually 1 year). When a home seller offers a lease-purchase option, what they are really offering is the option to rent the house at some monthly rate, and to lock in the sales price of the home now, even though the prospective buyer would not actually purchase the house until a later time (if at all).
Here is a hypothetical example. Let’s say the monthly rent for a home is $1700. Under a lease-purchase option, a prospective buyer would rent the home for the $1700 a month, but would also pay an additional premium (e.g., $200-$300) every month for the option to buy the home after a period of time (usually 1 year). So in this example, the total monthly rent is actually $2000, but $200-$300 of the money will be applied toward buying the house at a later time. In other words, the home seller would apply the $200-$300 extra paid every month toward the prospective buyer’s down payment at the end of the year.
The good news for prospective home buyers is that it allows them to lock in the purchase price of the home now, even though they are not purchasing the home until a later time. The bad news is that if a buyer decides not to purchase the home at the end of lease term, the seller often keeps the premium amount paid over the year, although this is usually a point of negotiation.
Prospective home buyers should know that many of the terms described above are negotiable such as how much the monthly rent will be, how much extra has to be paid every month for the option fee (if any), the length of the lease term, etc. The other issue to consider is if it makes sense to lock in a home purchase price now in markets where real estate prices are still declining.
When compared to renting, a lease-purchase can be an attractive alternative because it gives prospective buyers an opportunity to own a home before they normally would be able to. There are some advantages to a lease-purchase option such as:
1) Low or No Initial Down Payment. Many lease-purchase options do not require an initial down payment.
2) Equity Advantage. At the end of the lease term, the value of a home may have appreciated over time, which benefits the purchaser.
3) Living Experience. Prospective home buyers have the opportunity to try out a home and neighborhood before purchasing the property.
4) Leverage Advantage. With just a small investment, a prospective buyer can control a property; yet still have the option of not buying the home if market conditions don’t warrant it.
Rent-to-own or lease-purchase option can be an effective strategy to home ownership. However, there are both positive and negative aspects to this type of approach (as described above). A good real estate agent can help you navigate the complex world of rent-to-own and lease-purchase option properties.

Modest median price gains in new and existing homes, a stable interest rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage, decreased housing starts and a stable unemployment rate are some of the features of the 2007 housing forecast provided by major trade group economists as reported by The Inman News.
NAR chief economist David Lereah expects new-home sales to fall from 1.07 million units sold in 2006 to 975,000 units in 2007, which is an 8.7% decline. He cites decreased new home construction as a large contributing factor to this change. The median new home price of $238,400 in 2006 is expected to increase by 1.3 percent to $241,400 in 2007.
NAR also predicts that existing home sales figures for 2006 to end around 6.47 million units, which is an 8.6% decline from 2005. The 2007 forecast for existing home sales is 6.43 million units. The median price of existing homes in 2006 was $223,700 and is expected to increase 1.7% to $227,500 in 2007.
Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts the interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages to stay around 6.5 percent, but mortgage originations to fall 14% to $2.1 trillion.
While Lereah predicts that the unemployment rate to stay at 4.7 percent, Duncan takes it higher and believes it may reach 5.2 percent by midyear 2007. However, he concurs with Lereah in predicting modest home price gains in new and existing homes for the coming year.
The housing forecast of The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is in line with NAR and the Mortgage Bankers Association. According to David Seiders, Chief Economist at NAHB, the year 2007 will see the housing market re-adjust itself once the housing demand stabilizes, leading to a healthy balance between supply and demand.
Looking at the state level, the California Association of Realtors (CAR) projects that the median price of California homes will end 2006 around $560,700, and will decline in 2007 to $550,000 — a 1.7% drop. The number of units sold in California will end 2006 around 481,200, and is projected to decrease 447,500 in 2007. CAR predicts that the unemployment rate will stay around 5.1 percent, although interest rates on the 30-year fixed mortgage may hover around 6.7 percent in 2007.
The overall housing forecast for 2007 made by these four major real estate trade groups is not at all bad. Home buyers and investors planning to go ahead with their real estate activities can fare better with the help of a good real estate agent.

On any given day, people can easily find articles and news stories describing an impending bust of the so-called real estate bubble. Despite this gloomy prediction, many experts believe that the recent slowdown in housing will be a gradual and modest readjustment rather than sharp bust or decline. These experts believe that factors that lead to a sharp decline in the real estate market are just not present in the current economic outlook. In fact, a recent study by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University noted that “despite the current cool-down, the long-term outlook for housing is bright.”
The rise and fall of the real estate market is subject to the forces of supply and demand, and these factors point to stable and positive growth in the real estate segment.SUPPLY FACTORS
Limited supply of real estate makes it scarce and usually pushes home prices up. In contrast, an oversupply of real estate tends to put downward pressure on home prices. Despite the current slow down in the real estate market, factors that impact limited supply favor continued growth in the real estate market. Some of these factors include:
1. Builders have readjusted growth plans in regions that have an oversupply of new housing. Over time, any excess inventory is likely to be depleted and equilibrium achieved between supply and demand.
2. The availability of land in certain regions, as well land use regulations and associated compliance costs will continue to restrict the supply of new homes.DEMAND FACTORS:
Housing located in regions with high demand tend to be more expensive than homes in regions with low demand. Factors that impact the demand for housing suggests a favorable long-term housing outlook. Some of these factors include:
1. No current evidence of significant and across-the-board job losses; forecasts of relatively low unemployment rates.
2. Long-term increased demand for second homes, vacation homes and senior housing by baby boomers.
3. Long-term increased demand for entry-level homes by the children of baby boomers.
4. Long-term increased demand for entry-level homes by immigrants.
5. Long-term increased demand for entry-level homes by second-generation Americans.
6. Forecasts that the outflows and inflows of the U.S. population in and out different regions will not significantly impact the overall U.S. real estate housing market.
7. Relative stability in interest rates.
8. Continued stability in long-term home appreciation rates.
9. Overall, rising rate of wealth across all age groups.SUMMARY
In summary, strong household growth, overall rising incomes and wealth, and a stable economy all bode well for continued long-term growth in the real estate market. While the overall housing outlook is favorable, affordability will continue to be a challenge, as wages, especially in the lower income levels, have not kept up with housing costs.

The price of housing is a major challenge in the United States. Some estimates note that more than 50% of the population cannot afford a median priced home. According to National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), of the total number of new and existing homes sold nationwide during the third quarter, only 40.4 percent were affordable for families earning the median U.S. income of $59,600.
But it is good news that housing affordability on the national level has not changed much in the third quarter in spite of a rise in the mortgage interest rates during the last quarter. This was because many markets saw a slight decrease in their home prices, which helped offset the rise in mortgage rates.
Indianapolis (Indiana) is the most affordable city for homes in America, based on the 2006 third quarter report of the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI). The city achieved this status for the fifth consecutive quarter.
Of the total number of housing units sold in Indianapolis during the third quarter, 86 percent of homes were priced at or below the U.S. median household income of $65,100. Homes in this metro area had a median sales price of $122,000, which is slightly higher from $120,000 of the previous quarter.
It is interesting to note that the most affordable U.S. cities for homes, condos and other real estate are largely from the northern industrial metro areas. The other larger cities that top the list for affordable homes in the third quarter after Indianapolis are Youngstown-Warren-Boardman (Ohio-Pennsylvania); Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn (Michigan); Buffalo-Niagara Falls (New York); and Grand Rapids and Wyoming (Michigan).
The report also lists the top seven smaller cities in America that have the most affordable housing markets. These are: Bay City in Michigan, Springfield in Ohio, Mansfield in Ohio, Lansing-East Lansing in Michigan, Lima in Ohio, Battle Creek in Michigan and Canton-Massillon in Ohio.
For both major metros and small metros, many of the least affordable cities are located in California. The least affordable major metro areas are Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Modesto, Stockton, and San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, in that order. The least affordable smaller metros (less than 500,000 people) include: Salinas, Merced, Madera, Napa, and Santa Barbara-Santa Maria.
The good news for homebuyers is that there are many affordable cities in the United States. Moreover, even for cities that rated poorly for affordability, there may be some communities within the larger city that have affordable housing. For example, although the San Diego metro in California rated poorly overall for affordability, there are some communities in San Diego priced to meet the needs of lower-income home buyers. A good real estate agent can help you choose a community where you want to live based on your housing budget and needs.